I've been tinkering with my Forex stuff a bit lately trying to find a hedge for my USD/TRY short trades. There's lots of interest to be earned by holding the Turkish Lira short against the U.S. Dollar - a 13.7% differential presently - but it comes with lots of risk, too. This month has put that fact on display with the Lira falling from around 1.26:1 on the Dollar to about 1.59:1 at the moment. In a word: ouch.I've had my eye on the Canadian dollar as a possible hedge. My reason for looking at it is the low interest cost it would incur - 1.1% through my broker at the moment, and likely to fall since the Central Bank of Canada cut their rate by 25 basis points today - and because the Loonie tends to follow oil; right now, that means down. The U.S. Dollar, on the other hand, tends to rise as oil falls.
With oil falling right now at the same time that credit concerns are affecting the Forex market, I'm seeing candlestick charts for USD/TRY and USD/CAD that are nearly identical in form. They're not identical in scale, however, so I've been experimenting with buying USD/CAD long positions that carry a per-pip value that is twice that of any open USD/TRY short positions I have. This has produced interesting results in back testing: starting from January 1st of this year, the worst drawdown was an unrealized loss of about 20%, and at this point in time the total account value would be positive at around $400 of unrealized gains. With the amount of USD/TRY versus USD/CAD I modeled, the monthly interest income was around $100 per month, so counting October that would be around another $1,000 of equity in the account.
I've checked this combo with a few charting tools I have available for longer time periods and the relationship appears to remain basically the same. The only shortcoming of these tools is that I can't specify the differing position sizes, so I can't be completely certain that their representations are accurate. Still, checking this "by hand" by comparing pip values in relation to specific starting points at various points in time seems to suggest that it's a viable, stable strategy.
Stability in this market... imagine that! Seems right now a bit like chasing fountains of youth, holy grails, pots of gold at the end of rainbows, etc. Then again, I've never actually tried chasing any of those things...
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