12 April 2018

Bitcoin Spiking As Tax Season Ends?

Tax season in the United States ends next week with the Federal income tax filing deadline fast approaching on April 17th. I just finalized my Federal and state taxes this morning. All I have to say about that is, "next year will be better" (thanks to the Trump Administration's tax cut passed late last year that are in effect now).

Between my pest control work picking up massively as we head into spring and having my head in the paperwork nightmare that is our tax system these days, I haven't kept up with this project. But in terms of cryptos and other investments, I also haven't seen much that is new and noteworthy either.

Except for one thing that I came across about a week ago that I thought was interesting: TechCashHouse discussing  Bitcoin regaining upward momentum after tax season passes, a prediction made by Fundstrat's Tom Lee.

Why? Basically that people are selling to raise money to pay tax bills. Once that need passes, so will the major selling.

When I first heard the idea, I shrugged and said, "well, it's as good a prediction as any other." That is, it will be believable when (if) it comes to pass.

Then today, this happened.

Given the position the Bitcoin market has been in as of late, maybe there's something to this after all...


Ahkenaten Kor said...

Bitcoin is too new for anyone to really know all the determining factors of its ups and downs. Analysts still have trouble understand why the NASDAQ is down at times. I have been curious and contemplated investing into Bitcoin, so I like to keep tabs on information like this. With some disposable income, it might be worth the risk.

Paul E. Zimmerman said...

Yes and no. Mainly it's a matter of the time frame in which you're looking at it trying to figure out what's going on. In the short term, predictions/explanations for what's happening typically don't work out. Long term, then you can start hitting the target.

I saw this interview with John McAfee yesterday in which he says much the same thing:


As for the present topic, the tax day connection is a best guess among all of the guesses that are out there, I think. The main reason this makes sense to me is that there's been a persistent myth in the U.S. crypto community that Bitcoin et al. were not taxable. As such, all through last year during the massive spike, people were trading short term like crazy. In late December and at the beginning of this year the IRS and financial news outlets began hammering on the message: "Yes, Bitcoin IS taxable." So then there was selling pressure there, overseas shenanigans, general FUD, etc. The FUD never stops, but the regulatory shakeups overseas subsided a while ago, leaving the tax angle as the latest pressure to end. As such, it seems to be a reasonable guess as to what's going on.

I don't trade it. I'm with McAfee on this one. Why complicate things so much if all I'll likely need to do is just wait?

Anyway, as for which money you put into it, just throw in spare change. Maybe the leftover cash of your monthly food budget?

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